Analisis Prediksi Financial Distress Berdasarkan Model Altman Dan Zmijewski Pada Perusahaan Manufaktur Yang Terdaftar Di Bursa Efek Indonesia

Layyi naturrobaniyah, Karina Desiria Dewi

Abstract


This research is aimed to compare accuration rate of Altman and Zmijewski model, also to find what are the variables from both models having significant influence in predicting the corporate’s financial distress probability. The samples of this research are manufacturing companies experiencing and not experiencing financial distress listed in Indonesian Stock Exchange during the period of 2008- 2012. The independent variables used in this research are obtained from both models, they are Working Capital to Total Assets, Retained Earnings to Total Assets, Earnings Before Interest and Taxes to Total Assets, Market Value of Equity to Book Value of Total Debt, Sales to Total Assets, Net Income to Total Assets, Total Liabilities to Total Assets, and Current Assets to Current Liabilities, while for the the dependent variable, whether the companies are in financial distress status or not, is used. The research methodology used is comparative descriptive. Logistic regression test, to find which variables are significantly affecting in predicting the corporate’s financial distress probability, is used to test the hypotheses. The result of this research shows that Zmijewski model is the most accurate model and the most suitable model to predict the financial distress probability of companies belong to manufacturing industry in Indonesian Stock Exchange, with the accuration rate of 68% one year before financial distress, while the variables significantly negative affecting in corporate’s financial distress prediction are Retained Earnings to Total Assets, Earnings Before Interest and Taxes to Total Asstes, and Market Value of Equity to Book Value of Total Debt.

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